The Hill has updated its whip count of Democrats for this weekend's health care bill vote. See where your Representative is and then let them know how you feel about the bill.

NTU urges all Representatives to vote “NO” on H.R. 3962, the “Affordable” Health Care for America Act. This 1,990-page, $1 trillion bill is NOT health care reform, but rather a political ploy to deceive taxpayers and forever distort the relationship between government and the people it serves. While there are innumerable provisions in this legislation that we oppose, we have chosen to highlight those that we believe are most detrimental to taxpayers.

H.R. 3962 will hurt, if not destroy, small businesses. Small business owners making $500,000 or more will be hit with a 5.4 percent surtax to fund part of this supposed “reform.” That, coupled with the pending expiration of the Bush tax cuts, will increase the marginal tax rate from 35 to 45 percent, resulting in the loss of approximately 5.5 million jobs nationwide. Additionally, businesses will be slapped with a mandate requiring them to offer “approved” health insurance to their employees. Businesses could be taxed as high as 8 percent because of this mandate, leading many to lay off workers if they cannot afford the extra costs.

H.R. 3962 contains 100 authorizations and appropriations that inflate the role and size of the federal government at unprecedented, not to mention unsustainable, levels. The dollar figures in H.R. 3962 total in excess of $100 billion, as well as 32 additional authorizations “for such sums as may be necessary.” Looking at the larger picture, the Congressional Budget Office estimates this bill will cost $1.055 trillion; however, that does not include the additional $34 billion states will pay for Medicaid expansion or the $245 billion for Medicare reimbursements for doctors. Nor does it include the authorized discretionary spending for grants, public programs, changes and funding for a variety of agencies forced into implementing H.R. 3962.

Unbridled spending, tax hikes, and a more powerful, less accountable government are not the way to lower costs and improve our health system. It is our hope that you will put party politics aside, vote NO on H.R. 3962, and work toward passage of a common-sense, more fiscally responsible health care bill that empowers patients, not Washington bureaucrats.

Roll call votes on H.R. 3962 will be among only a handful in the last decade to receive the highest weight of 100 in our annual Rating of Congress.

If you have any questions, please contact
NTU Federal Government Affairs Manager Jordan Forbes at (703) 683-5700
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NTU joined conservatives and libertarians on Capitol Hill yesterday to protest Pelosi's health care bill. The event had tens of thousands of participants from all across our nation. Pretty phenomenal turn out, especially when the entire event was planned in only four days!

Go to our Flickr page to view NTU's pictures from the event.

The Government Accountability Office reports that the U.S. Postal Service's recent efforts to cut costs and increase revenues have been a $7 billion bust, the third consecutive year of losses and the largest in decades. And in keeping in the spirit of Bailout Nation, Congress shipped $4 billion to the Postal Service to help it make its mandatory payment to prefund employee retirement benefits.

The generous contracts that union employees have in the USPS is a large part of the system's fiscal problems. Despite improvements in technology and automation, compensation and benefits have comprised a steady 80 percent of the USPS's costs over the years.

With the GAO forecasting that the mail service will lost $7 billion in 2010 and 2011, the USPS will have to quicken efforts to cut costs and generate revenue. But if they raise the price of postage, they risk losing out on more business to electronic delivery. The USPS is looking for ways to generate revenue outside of its regular purview. It has asked Congress for permission to offer non-postal products such as insurance and banking. The GAO warns such a venture could very well lose more money for the USPS, and it also opens up "fair competition issues."

Our public option for mortgages has already gone belly up, and our public option for mail is on life support. Why would a public option for health insurance not meet a similar fiscal fate?

Not much needs to be added to the somber statistic except to wonder how it will effect waivering Democratic votes on the House health care "reform" bill, given that all but the most far-left of the Dems must understand that the measure will be extremely destructive to American employment.

Canadian unemployment made a similiar unexpectedly high jump during October.

I've written in the past, about the so-called "stimulus" plan, that it was never intended to stimulate the economy at the time it was passed. Instead, the Administration has been keeping its powder dry so that it could pump hundreds of billions of dollars of your money into temporary, mostly-union, jobs in the middle of 2010 in order to minimize Democratic election losses next November. I stand by that prediction of their intent.

However, just as nobody but the far left puts any credibility in the "jobs created or saved" statistics put out by the Administration, these make-work jobs -- most often in places which already have relatively low unemployment and on projects which are not the most necessary -- will not work into beneficial economic news for Obama. (If employment begins to rise noticeably in the next 6 months, it will be in spite of, not because of, his economic policies. And most of the nation knows it.)

Speaking of "jobs created or saved", did you see this story about a community organization which reported more jobs created or saved than they have in total employees at the place? When even the AP is shredding Obama's numbers, you know they must be unbelievably blatant lies.

With the persistent uncertainty about what productive sector of society the Democrats will target for tax increases, regulation, or just threats, and the upcoming barrage of tax hikes, anywhere from fairly large to a tsunami of economic destruction (if the tax hikes in the House health care "reform" bill were to pass), very few businesses will be looking to expand. I see no reason for any substantial improvement in unemployment until these issues are resolved in a way that's better than anything the Democrats are currently proposing. If anything were to lower the unemployment rate, it would probably be discouraged would-be workers simply giving up on finding a job.

Nothing says "vote out the party in power" like high unemployment. If I were a Democrat in a conservative or even moderate district, I'd be extremely nervous for my political future right now. All the more so with the GOP domination in Wednesday's most important elections. Again, I wonder if today's news will make it more difficult for Nancy Pelosi to come up with 218 votes for her takeover of 1/6th of our economy.

From AP:

The second-ranking House Democrat predicted that historic health care legislation will be passed Saturday, extending coverage to tens of millions of uninsured and banning the industry from turning people away.

Rep. Steny Hoyer told reporters House leaders would have the 218 votes needed to pass the sweeping bill that President Barack Obama has made the defining social goal of his young administration — presuming a couple of final issues are resolved. Hoyer acknowledged that the vote could be tight.

Time is running out! If you have not expressed your opposition to your Members of Congress, now is the time to do so.

This morning, I had the privilege of a one-on-one interview with Congressman John Fleming (LA-4) to discuss his thoughts surrounding the prevailing health care debate. It was interesting to get his take on an issue that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is now saying could very well carry over to next year. While it is good news that a final bill may not be signed into law until the next session of Congress, we must continue to focus on House Representatives as they prepare to cast their votes this Friday or Saturday.

The Republicans have offered an amendment in the nature of a substitute to Nancy Pelosi’s H.R. 3962, the “Affordable” Health Care for America Act. Among several other key differences between the two pieces of legislation, Congressman Fleming said that the amendment would “not add one dime to the deficit,” include tort reform to save taxpayers $30 billion, contain no federal mandates on states, and allow small businesses to aggregate for health care coverage.

Since we have heard a lot of rhetoric from the Democratic majority about their proposed health care reform plan, I asked Congressman Fleming to break down the specific tax implications in H.R. 3962 that he found most problematic. He started out by saying that this bill is a “tax horror show.” He went on to elaborate that the Democratic bill will ultimately hurt small businesses the most because a majority of their profits do not go into owners’ pockets, but instead are invested back into their respective businesses. Taxing these companies, many of them LLCs, at a greater rate through H.R. 3962 is particularly harmful. The Congressman also explained that H.R. 3962 would increase the marginal tax rate from 35% to 45% and result in the loss of approximately 5.5 million jobs nationwide. This 10% increase comes from the inevitable expiration of the Bush tax cuts and the excise tax of 5.4% found in H.R. 3962. And, don’t forget about the individual and employer mandates – a 2% tax on individuals if they do not purchase “approved” health insurance and 8% tax on businesses if they do not offer coverage to their employees. Neither mandate is contained within the Republican alternative.

I really appreciate the Congressman taking the time to speak to us this morning, as it is always helpful to get an inside perspective – and from a doctor to boot! He is particularly in tune to problems surrounding the health care industry, and how we can most successfully implement true reform that does not dramatically hurt taxpayers.

Stay tuned for health care updates throughout the week. Again, a House vote will likely take place this FRIDAY or SATURDAY, so please call your Representative and tell them to vote NO on H.R. 3962.

In a continued effort to speak out against government-run health care, NTU has launched an aggressive campaign in key Democratic districts across the nation. We will sponsor radio ads and phone banks opposing the $1 trillion health care bill, and the following Members of Congress will be targeted:

Travis Childers, MS-01
Mike McIntyre, NC-07
Heath Shuler, NC-11
Dina Titus, NV-03
Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ-01
Glenn Nye, VA-02
Harry Teague, NM-02
Tom Perriello, VA-05
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, SD-AL
Joe Donnelly, IN-02
Brad Ellsworth, IN-08
Charlie Wilson, OH-06
Christopher Carney, PA-10
Mike Ross, AR-4
Vic Snyder, AR-2
Mark Schauer, MI-7
Marion Berry, AR-1
Rick Boucher, VA-9
Dennis Moore, KS-3
Frank Kratovil, MD-1
Kathy Dahlkemper, PA-3
Bart Gordon, TN-6
Martin Heinrich, NM-1
Betsy Markey, CO-4
John Salazar, CO-3
Ben Chandler, KY-6
Allen Boyd, FL-2
Scott Murphy, NY-2
Earl Pomeroy, ND (At Large)

The fight is far from over. We hear that Speaker Pelosi will bring H.R. 3962 to the floor as soon as she obtains 218 votes, which could occur THIS WEEK. We have put a tremendous amount of resources into this campaign because we believe it could have a significant impact on fence-sitting lawmakers. It is our hope that these ads will energize taxpayers to call their Representatives and demand that their voice be heard.

Here is an example of one of the ads:

The House of Representatives may vote on health care legislation THIS WEEK, and we need your help to try to stop them. Right now, we are hearing that Speaker Pelosi does not have the votes, but will bring the bill to the floor as soon as she reaches the magic number of 218. WE CANNOT LET THIS HAPPEN!

The $1 trillion bill, complete with its massive tax hikes, government-forced insurance, new regulations and bureaucracies – all leading to a much larger and more powerful federal government – will be one of the most important votes you will ever witness. For the sake of your future, for the sake of your children’s future, please speak out! House conservatives will lead a “House Call” protest rally on the Capitol steps this Thursday, November 5, at noon. I encourage you to join us in this effort as we tell Congress, one more time, that we do not want the government taking over one-fifth of our economy through passage of this horrific health care legislation. If you cannot make it out to Capitol Hill, please call your Representative around the same time and tell them to vote NO on H.R. 3962, the “Affordable” Health Care for America Act.

Everyone remembers the famous (infamous?) shot of President Bush on the aircraft carrier with the mission accomplished banner waving, in my head I substitute in Obama and pretend the war was against the economy. Instead of acknowledging that their stimulus has clearly NOT worked (unemployment heading over 10%) they're simply claiming victory.

On Friday (as reported in the Huffington Post), Jared Bernstein, white house economic advisor, declared that Obama’s stimulus package has “saved or created about 650,000 jobs”. The problem is, that statistic, according to Harvard Economist Greg Mankiw, is an “immeasurable metric” (i.e. complete fiction). We cannot possibly calculate jobs saved and the evidence seems to point to gross overstatement of jobs created. There is simply no way to find out. In the phrase ‘jobs saved or created’ the spin gurus have worked a masterpiece. They found a ‘macroeconomic estimation’ of the impact spending could have on employment and they’ve ran with it.

If there is any silver lining here, the inverse statistic is easily measured: jobs NOT saved. Since Obama’s stimulus passed in February the American economy lost nearly 3.7 million jobs, not even counting October. So if Obama’s plan saved/created 650,000 jobs (dubious), but we still lost 3.7 million, by their best guess the plan was not even 15% effective at stemming the tide of job losses. It seems they pushed a plan to spend 787 billion dollars of tax payer money on a stimulus that hasn’t actually stimulated anything... definitely a 'mission accomplished'.

I'm blogging today from the State Policy Network Annual Meeting in gorgeous Asheville, NC. It's a phenomenal conference for anyone with an interest in state fiscal and economic issues, as it brings together the leaders of free market think tanks across the country for policy discussions, training seminars, and networking. This year's event could not come at a better time, as Election Night falls smack dab in the middle of the four-day conference. Thus, I'll be following returns on several ballot initiatives and two gubernatorial races with free market thinkers and activists representing key states in this "off-year" election.

NTU's 2009 Ballot Guide gives a succinct look at key measures that will expand or contract state government. In this post I'll flesh out the details of the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia and a few key measures in other states.

Governor's Races

• New Jersey. Incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (D) faces a tough test tomorrow, running for re-election against former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (R) and former EPA administrator Chris Daggett (I). Corzine's record as governor is abysmal. He has raised taxes on income, property, cigarettes, alcohol, and lottery winnings just this year. New Jersey's tax climate is among the nation's most onerous, and residents are leaving the state in droves - over 462,000 left between 1998 and 2007, according to ALEC. Corzine was one of the first governors to vocally support President Obama's federal bailout of state governments, which propped up New Jersey's budget temporarily but will leave a gaping deficit the next time around. Corzine promised spending transparency in New Jersey (see NTU's letter to the Governor) but ultimately has not delivered.
  
  Christie, on the other hand, has offered a vague plan to cut taxes. He blames Corzine for the state's fiscal woes, but offers few details on how he would restore fiscal sanity in Trenton. His campaign has focused more on corruption and law-and-order; these are important issues, but it is the tax-and-spend culture in the Garden State that should be the true winning issue. Middling poll numbers (Christie +1.2 according to RealClearPolitics) suggest that he has not convinced voters that he has a clear-cut plan for restoring government to its proper size and scope.
  
  Unfortunately for Christie, Independent candidate Chris Daggett stands to receive 11.6 percent of the vote per RCP. Many of his supporters are likely anti-Corzine voters who find little to like about the Republican alternative. Daggett's tax plan is heavy on details - he would cut property taxes and raise sales taxes, while eliminating a variety of tax rebates and credits. There is debate as to whether his plan represents a net increase in taxes.
  
  For what it's worth, the New Jersey Taxpayers Alliance, a friend of NTU, has endorsed Christie. Taxpayers really can't fare much worse than they have under Jon Corzine, and in this too-close-to-call race it will be interesting to see if they trust Christie's anti-Corzine meme or if Daggett siphons enough votes to ensure four more years of high taxes, exploding debt, and rampant overspending - with no semblance of transparency to boot.



• Virginia. This is an open race, as Virginia has a one term limit for Governor. Virginia is a former red state that has been purpling; its last two governors have been Democrats, and both U.S. Senate seats are Democrats. This race pits Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R) against State Sen. Creigh Deeds. It is a rematch of the extremely close AG race in 2005, when McDonnell beat Deeds by less than 1,000 votes.
  
  As in Virginia, this race features a Republican somewhat vague on the tax-and-spend issue, though much less so than Chris Christie. McDonnell has hit Deeds on his willingness to hike taxes to pay for transportation upgrades. Deeds has stammered, hemmed and hawed when asked about his predilection to tax increases, and attempted to make the race about McDonnell's views on social issues. McDonnell has refused to engage, instead portraying himself as a "jobs candidate." I have yet to meet an anti-jobs candidate, but that's another story.
  
  Polling dictates that McDonnell (along with the rest of the statewide Republican ticket) will cruise tomorrow. The Republican leads by an RCP average of 14 percent. We aren't too sure how Governor McDonnell will treat taxpayers, but we are heartened by his criticism of Deed's position on tax increases.

Ballot Initiatives

• Maine Question 4. Mainers will vote on a Taxpayers Bill of Rights (TABOR) tomorrow that will cap the annual growth of government spending at the rates of inflation plus population growth, allow voters to decide on any tax increases, and refund a portion of surplus revenues to taxpayers via broad-based tax cuts. Colorado is currently the only state with such a strong set of taxpayer protections, and Maine's TABOR actually improves on the Colorado manifestation.
  
  To put it succinctly: Government continues to grow at an unsustainable rate in Maine, leading to perpetual deficits and tax increases. After a similar version of TABOR narrowly failed in Maine in 2006, lawmakers promised to reign in spending and taxes. Since then, they have increased taxes by $300 million. Over the past decade, Maine has lost 13,000 private sector job while adding 3,400 employees to the government payroll.
  
  Because politicians insist on saying one thing and doing another, TABOR is necessary to control the growth of government and give citizens a voice. Polling is mixed on this issue, as labor unions and those who profit from government (like the hedge fund manager who received a $200 million taxpayer-funded bailout) continue to pour millions of dollars into efforts to defeat the measure. If Question 4 passes (along with Washington Initiative-1033), other states may feel emboldened to replicate the success of Colorado's TABOR amendment, relieving taxpayers across the country from the burdens of big government.
  
  For more information on Question 4, visit NTU's http://maine4taxpayers.com and the YES on 4 campaign's http://www.tabornow.com. Follow Maine for Taxpayers on Twitter: @ME4Taxpayers.



• Washington Initiative-1033. Washington State voters will decide tomorrow on a measure similar to Maine Question 4. Rather than spending, I-1033 will cap government revenues at the rates of inflation plus population growth. Taxpayers will be able to vote on any proposed tax increases or revenue increases above the cap, and surplus revenues will be refunded to them via property tax cuts.
  
  The case for I-1033 is similar to that of Question 4. The state recently grappled with the largest deficit in its history, a $9 billion budget hole created by a 31 percent explosion in spending during Gov. Gregoire's first term. Government was allowed to grow rapidly during periods of economic expansion, only to face drastic budget cuts and the threat of tax increases during the current slowdown. I-1033 would impose predictability in the budgeting process, rather than the boom-and-bust status quo. It is also important to note that government would not shrink under I-1033, and no cuts would be made as a direct result. Government continues to grow, only at a responsible rate.
  
  Like Question 4, poll numbers are fluid and subject to millions of dollars of lobbying from out-of-state union bosses. I-1033 would be revolutionary for Washington's economy, allowing the private sector to flourish while helping to restore government to its proper role.
  
  For my take on these spending cap measures, see today's Stateline story. Also check out NTU's Taxpayers for 1033 at http://taxpayersfor1033.com. Follow on Twitter: @1033Taxpayers.

There are a number of other important state and local ballot initiatives across the country rated in NTU's Ballot Guide. Proposition 11 in Texas would protect against eminent domain abuses. Voters in Palm Springs will be faced with a measure to increase the telephone tax. Numerous localities in multiple states will vote on measures to increase debt.

Most importantly, get to the polls tomorrow. You can impact the way government treats you today, while giving momentum to further reform efforts in the near future.

Thanks to our friends at the Idaho Freedom Foundation for this story. We’re approaching the holiday season and already the Christmas commercials are playing and the malls are displaying their holiday merchandise. So as you begin thinking about planning your Christmas party, you may be interested to hear about the party that you paid for last year. Oh yeah, did I mention that you weren’t even invited?

The city of McCall threw its employees a $5,490 Christmas party at taxpayer expense. City records show that the party was held at the McCall Golf Club and included $2,783 for dinner and $2,707 for gifts and gift certificates. Hope the prime rib was delicious!

The bigger question here is why McCall is spending so much for a holiday party during a recession that’s hurting the tourism industry the city depends on. Employees are already getting a great deal from the taxpayers! They have full-time jobs that aren’t dependent on the weather like the rest of us have to live with. They have paid vacation and paid sick leave that most of the business people in McCall cannot offer to their employees. Many businesses are asking their employees to take a pay cut. To make matters worse, they hosted the party at the same time the city raised property taxes. They raised taxes by 3%. When everybody else is cutting back, is it too much to ask that they refrain from giving increases?

Here is a link to a Google Docs spreadsheet I put together of all the authorizations and appropriations available in H.R. 3962, the Affordable Health Care for America Act.

The dollar figures in the bill total in excess of $100 billion, plus there are 32 additional authorizations for "such sums as may be necessary."

Note: This article is posted on behalf of NTU Foundation Research Analyst Eric Sundheim.

A recent study by Subsidyscope (a project of Pew Charitable Trusts "to raise public awareness about the role of federal subsidies in the economy") estimates that Amtrak loses $32 per passenger- four times the $8 figure Amtrak reported. The discrepancy is the result of contrasting accounting methods: Subsidyscope's calculation includes depreciation on capital and overhead costs (wearing down of trains, HR costs, etc.) while Amtrak's does not. Given that depreciation and overhead are included in virtually every other accounting department, I asked Steve Klum, Director of Amtrak media relations to explain this exception. He responded:

Farebox recovery [excluding depreciation] … is the accepted measure of financial performance in the passenger rail industry.

Seeing as Amtrak is the ONLY intercity passenger railroad in the continental United States, Klum is basically saying "because that's how we do it." In 2005 the Government Accountability Office suggested that Amtrak change their policy. Amtrak ignored the suggestion because they don't want to admit how much money they lose.

The question is: Why do taxpayers cover $462 of the $750 train ride from LA to New Orleans? The American Public Transportation Association says we should do it because we create "green jobs." They cite a study by the Economic Development Research Group which claims that increased train ridership reduces automobile emissions. Yet this study also claims that Amtrak investment directly and indirectly increased spending on manufacturing and construction which, last I checked, were not green sectors of the economy. If we want to help the environment, there are better uses for the $1.5 billion a year we currently spend on train ticket subsidies.

The next time you hear a headline stating that Amtrak ridership increased by 1,000 passengers last month you should be thinking, "great- taxpayers just lost 32 grand."

Just like the Baucus bill, the health care "reform" bill which is being pushed by Nancy Pelosi (and which she might or might not have the votes to get through the House) is nothing more than financial smoke and mirrors, a massive tax and spend program which will cost far more than Pelosi or her useful idiots at the CBO want you to believe.

Please see my full discussion of the subject in my article at HumanEvents.com today:
See "Pelosicare’s Costly Formula", Ross Kaminsky, Human Events, 11/2/09